Aluminum fabrication refers to the processing of aluminum ingots into plastic by plastic processing methods. The main methods are rolling, extrusion, drawing and forging. The processed products are mainly divided into the following three categories: primary products, products directly cast from primary aluminum, without pressure processing, such as high-purity aluminum, aluminum powder, rolled slab, rolling and rolling strip for rolling, drawing Used wire rods, extruded round ingots, forged ingots, etc.; secondary products, pressure processed products (plates, strips, foils, tubes, rods, profiles, wires and forged parts, etc.); further processing of pressure processed products into finished products or aluminum die casting and casting aluminum products are processed into parts.
China is a large aluminum producer and consumer in the world, with an overall proportion of nearly 50% and a total profit of more than 50 billion. Chinese aluminum processing industry is in a high-speed growth period, making breakthroughs in major key technology research and development and new product projects. The level of technical equipment in the industry has also increased significantly, but there is still a gap compared with the advanced level of the world aluminum industry. The deep processing rate is less than 15%. We are the third generation of aluminum-lithium alloy technology, all-aluminum body, aerospace aluminum and engine manufacturing. There is still a gap between process equipment level and design and manufacturing capabilities.
According to the International Aluminum Association (IAI) forecast, global consumption for aluminum fabrication will reach 70 million tons in 2020, and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will reach 4.53% in the next five years. In 2016, global aluminum consumption reached 59.03 million tons (excluding recycled aluminum). It is estimated that global aluminum consumption will reach 61.92 million tons in 2017, an increase of 4.89%.
Chinese consumption for aluminum fabrication is growing strongly. According to the “13th Five-Year Plan” non-ferrous metal industry plan, Chinese total aluminum consumption will reach 43 million tons by 2020, and the CAGR will reach 7.24% during 2016-2020. In 2016, Chinese total aluminum consumption reached 32.5 million tons, an increase of 8% year-on-year. It is expected that aluminum consumption will reach 3,470 tons in 2017, an increase of 6.77%.
High-end aluminum fabrication consumption is rising sharply. Although China is a big global consumer of aluminum, there is a big difference in consumption structure from developed countries in Europe and America. Construction industry is a large application area of aluminum in China, accounting for 33%, followed by transportation, power, packaging, machinery manufacturing, consumer durables and electronic communication, accounting for 21%, 12%, 10%, 8%, 8% respectively. And 4%. In the United States, for example, transportation is based on the large aluminum sector, accounting for 39%, while the construction sector accounts for 25% and the packaging sector accounts for 16%.
The structural characteristics of Chinese consumption for aluminum fabrication determine the structural defects of the product. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the proportion of Chinese extruded materials accounted for about 60% of the proportion of processed materials, and the proportion of aluminum profiles and strips used in foreign developed countries was 2:3. At present, Chinese current proportion is relatively low. Chinese aluminum fabrication scale is high in the world, but the product homogenization is serious, and the technological innovation strength is relatively weak. At present, aviation-grade aluminum thick plates, aluminum alloy strips for automobile bodies, high-voltage anode electronic foils and other high-end aluminum strips. Most foil products rely on imports. At present, the application of aluminum in high-end fields such as packaging, new energy vehicles, high-speed rail, shipbuilding and aviation has infiltrated Chinese smart upgrades.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, it is estimated that the production and sales of the automobile market in 2017 will be approximately 29.4 million units, an increase of about 5% year-on-year. In 2016, Chinese automobile production and sales showed a rapid growth, and the total volume of production and sales reached a record high. In 2016, Chinese automobile production and sales completed 28.119 million and 28.528 million, respectively, up 14.5% and 13.7% from the same period of the previous year, up from 11.2 and 9.0 percentage points in the same period of the previous year.
The "Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles" issued by the China Automotive Engineering Society clearly states that in 2020, 2025 and 2035, the annual production and sales scale of automobiles will reach 30 million, 35 million and 38 million respectively, of which new energy Car sales will account for 7%, 15%, and 40%, respectively.
In 2020, the amount of aluminum used in bicycles in China will reach 180KG/car, and the new energy vehicles will reach 200KG/car. Therefore, the amount of aluminum used in Chinese autos will grow at a rate of 13% per year. In 2016, the average aluminum consumption per car in developed countries reached 150-160 kg/car, the aluminization rate was over 15%, the aluminum consumption in China was about 110 kg/car, and the aluminization rate was only 5%. The gap is obvious. High-end vehicles such as AudiA8, JaguarXJ, RangeRover and Tesla use more than 500 kg/car.
With the rapid growth of the global aviation industry, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, global aviation aluminum will continue to grow steadily in the future. According to aircraft delivery and single-machine aluminum consumption, global aviation aluminum demand will exceed 2 million in 2016-2020. Tons, an average of more than 400,000 tons per year.
China Aviation uses a high-end aluminum import substitution space. At present, all aluminum materials used in Chinese C919 large aircraft and ARJ21 regional passenger aircraft are provided by American Aluminum. The ARJ aircraft is mainly made of aluminum alloy. The weight of the aircraft is 25 tons. The quality of aluminum parts accounts for 75% of the net mass of the aircraft. The weight of the machine is 42 tons, and the total mass of aluminum workpieces accounts for 65% of the total net mass of the aircraft. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology "Non-ferrous Metal Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)" promotes the localization of aviation aluminum, and lists the development and application of key grade aluminum materials as the key work plan for 2017, striving to break through technical barriers and achieve full localization of aluminum. purpose. Chinese C919 trunk passenger aircraft, ARJ21 and New Week series regional passenger aircraft, Yun-20 heavy military transport aircraft, Qian 10 series / Qian20/Qian31 military aircraft, general aviation aircraft projects, is expected to 80% of aviation aluminum procurement opportunities to China Enterprises, based on the existing aluminum fabrication installed capacity and R & D investment, it is estimated that the proportion of domestic aluminum used in 2018 will increase to 35%, can be increased to 75% in 2022, and will be 95% in 2025.
According to the calculation of the aluminum alloy for a single aircraft and the total number of aircraft, the demand for aluminum in Chinese civil aircraft manufacturing is about 25,000 tons in 2018, and will reach 100,000 tons in 2025. The average annual growth rate from 2016 to 2025. The rate will reach 25%, higher than the aluminum demand of any industry, especially high-performance alloy materials.